home   ·   back

Small bets and big bets

Innovation and innovative work can be described as betting on an idea or experimenting.

There are two types of innovation: linear and non-linear.

Linear is obvious. Smaller transistors. More roads. Faster internet.

Non-linear is unknown. Quantum computers. Flying cars. Baloons providing internet.

Linear bets have smaller pay-off, but are more secure.

Non-linear bets are what makes linear bets possible.

Too linear and it becomes boring and stale.

Too non-linear and you have no stability.

What are the linear bets that you're taking? The obvious improvements to your work or life?

What are the non-linear bets? The risky stuff, the crazy ideas?

Make a list.

I did, and it helped clarify my aims.