What’s the first sign that you’re right?

Working on something with an uncertain result? How do you know it’s worth your time?

For businesses and projects, the goal is to eliminate risk as soon as possible.

To do that, first execute in the mind and then in the world.

In the mind, run an experiment. Take what you’re about to create and see the ways it might fail. Also envision what success looks like and what would be a good first sign of getting closer to it.

Then test the idea in the world. That’s the hard part, which is why first signs are important. They can guide you to course-correct massively and energize you on your way forward.

One thing to keep in mind, you may encounter a false positive or a false negative. A result that tells you that you’re either right or wrong, but that will ultimately prove invalid. The cure to a false positive or negative is greater numbers.

If you’re working on something complex and of uncertain outcome, what’s the first sign to help guide you?